King Pin?

Twelve months ago, the class of 2023 promised so much on paper and they delivered. Darley’s Too Darn Hot and Blue Point both struck at Group 1 level, the latter doubling his tally when Big Evs memorably scorched home at Santa Anita in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Top-class two-year-olds themselves, Ten Sovereigns and Calyx did not disappoint with both well represented in group races and ample encouragement for their future at stud.

With that in mind, which of the class of 2024 are most likely to hit the turf running next spring? There is a wide array of quality sires amongst the group but naturally some will have higher expectations for their juveniles than others. None more so than champion two-year-old PINATUBO (Shamardal) who earned the highest official rating for a juvenile since Celtic Swing (130 in 1994).

Pinatubo was awarded 128 at the conclusion of a remarkable six-race unblemished campaign that captured attention on these shores with an ‘I was there’ nine-length success in the G1 National Stakes at The Curragh. He concluded the yearling sales circuit at the top of the class by average (€163,000) and why wouldn’t he? He is out of the listed-winning mare Lava Flow (Dalakhani) and by a sire of sires who can no longer be considered emerging. Not too dissimilar to his stallion barn mate Too Darn Hot, Pinatubo arguably held his form as a three-year-old rather than progressed and so anything less than a flying start with his first crop might be seen as a disappointment in our ever-unforgiving market.

Also standing under the Darley banner is another son of Shamardal with early expectations as G1 Prix Morny winner EARTHLIGHT (Shamardal) has enjoyed a fruitful first yearling sales campaign of his own. Notorious for their early juveniles, Amo Racing combined with Ben McElroy to secure an Earthlight colt at Tattersalls Book Two for 325,000 guineas. His dam Dettoria is already responsible for the graded stakes winner Selenaia (Sea The Moon) and it would not be a daft ante-post selection to predict him carrying the purple and white Amo silks as early as Royal Ascot next June. Priced at €15,000 for 2024, Earthlight could be a calculated risk for shrewd breeders looking for an edge at a bargain that could well be a thing of the past in 12 months.

The rags-to-riches fairytale for Whitsbury Manor’s Havana Grey has only gathered momentum after Vandeek’s hoof-perfect two-year-old season. It’s becoming a little bit of a theme now to see budget sires picked up by Ed Harper transform into G1 sires. Their latest recruit SERGEI PROKOFIEV (Scat Daddy) made a big splash at the 2022 foal sales to indicate he could be the next to add his name to a growing roll of honour that includes Showcasing. While his race record falls a little short of some of his rivals, his sire line couldn’t be hotter. Carrying the same elite Scat Daddy genes that Justify, No Nay Never, Sioux Nation and Caravaggio are harnessing to conquer the global racing scene from Japan to Santa Anita and everywhere in between, breeders who used Sergei Prokofiev in his first season for £6,500 enjoyed a healthy foal sale average of £26,000 from 58 sold. His yearlings made a tempered rise to £37,000 but don’t be too discouraged by the apparent diminutive increase. Of 83 offered, 78 found new homes and given the sire line and his own precocity, it wasn’t breaking news to find a number of esteemed breeze-up people, a cohort renowned for pursuing value, signing a lot of the dockets.

Back on Irish turf, Coventry Stakes winner ARIZONA (No Nay Never) could prove another bargain source of Scat Daddy blood on a budget. GOLDEN HORDE (Lethal Force) is now in France. He was two lengths behind Arizona in the Coventry Stakes. Time was on his side when he went on to add the G1 Commonwealth Cup to his record the following year. A remarkably consistent racehorse, being a grandson of Dark Angel will make him another feather in his great-grandsire Acclamation’s cap if he proves up to the task.

Proven sires of sires are a useful indicator and the exploits of Calyx from Kingman’s first crop lend great encouragement for his future sons at stud. From the very same crop as Calyx came Kingman’s first Classic winner PERSIAN KING, who is set to unleash his first runners next year. Persian King was a G3 winner at two, Classic winner at three and added a pair of G1s to his record at four, the latter at the expense of Pinatubo in the Prix du Moulin. He did most of his winning over a mile but proved his adaptability when running an excellent third to SOTTSASS (Siyouni) in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Renewing that rivalry again, if the yearling sales averages are a glimpse into the future, Persian King has some ground to make up. His yearling average of €60,000 is a respectable return on his opening €30,000 stud fee and a median of €52,000 will hopefully have kept most breeders satisfied. Sottsass’ yearlings were warmly received with a very encouraging average of €100,000 from the same €30,000 initial outlay with a median of €65,000. His owner Peter Brant has not held back in stating his belief in and support for the horse and backed that up by paying €380,000 to secure a colt out of Ayelet (Hat Trick) at Arqana in August, the very sale he sourced Sottsass himself at for €340,000. From one of the first voices to get behind breed-shaper Mr Prospector, that’s probably a whisper worth listening to.

Only those depicted as ‘living under a rock’ will have missed the noise surrounding Darley’s latest Dubawi dynamo, with his imposing son GHAIYYATH continuing to raise his own bar ever since the day he conquered Enable in the 2020 Coral-Eclipse. He is yet another star bred on the Dubawi x Galileo cross and even boasts a Classic-winning dam in Nightime, the first of many Classic winners to come for the former and much-missed perennial champion Galileo. Since retiring to stud, his number of mares has risen. We can only assume his first foals were winning all the paddock races at Kildangan Stud.