Mares Market
QUALITY OVER QUANTITY
John Boyce finds out how the old saying still holds sway…
The nominations market proved very resilient last spring at the start of the pandemic. Most continued with their mating plans in the expectation that the world would return to normal at some point in the future. In fact, 2020 was the culmination of a ten-year success story for the stallion business on these islands. The volume and value of business is at an all-time high and the only thing restraining it from further growth, pandemic aside, is a yearling market that had been edging up incrementally prior to 2020, keeping hold of an exuberant nominations market like a parent would of an unruly child. It’s clear that the expansion in the nominations market is putting considerable strain on profitability.
To get a sense of how successful the stallion markets has been in recent times we can look at the 20k-plus stallions in Britain and Ireland. Back in 2011, only 2,509 mares were covered by a stallion standing at £20,000-plus or €20,000-plus. Ten years later in 2020, that number had doubled to 5,522 mares. And yes, 2020 inspite of Covid was a record year for mares visiting elite stallions. Moreover, although average book sizes are responsible for some of the growth, it is the sheer number of stallions employed nowadays at 20k-plus that account for the vast majority of the increase. In 2011, 21 stallions stood at this level and by 2020 that count had doubled to 42 – again a record number. On the face of it, we ought to be pleased that there are so many breeders with budgets for elite stallions. That, in itself, is a sure sign of a booming market. But, of course, there are always unintended consequences.
Ten years ago, the 21 stallions advertised at 20k or higher attracted an average book of 119 mares – 15 fewer than the average book covered by the same cohort in 2020. That said, the number of elite mares per stallion has fallen from 60 to 39 in the period. So we have a situation of bigger books but with less quality. And we are all aware that it is the elite mare that can make a marked difference to a stallion’s output of black-type winners. Even the best need the good mares: Dubawi sires 19% Stakes winners from his elite mares, compared to 12% from his non-elites while Galileo doubles his output with elite mares. So, more and more mares does not necessarily equate to more success. In fact, it can appear to have the opposite effect.
First Season Sires in 2020
There were ten new stallions slated to cover at 10k or higher in 2020, and while Tally-Ho’s new Invincible Spirit stallion, Inns Of Court, 124-rated by Timeform and a G2 winner, attracted more mares than any of the 10k-plus brigade and topped the charts with 215 mares from his €7.5k fee, two freshmen stood head and shoulders above all others when it cam to attracting quality mares. Dalham Hall Stud’s Too Darn Hot covered 76 elite mares among his 170, while the same organisation’s Blue Point stole the show in Ireland from his Kildangan base, entertaining 62 elite mares from among his 192 total. To put Too Darn Hot’s numbers in perspective, it helps to know that only six other first-season stallions in the previous 20 years have covered more elite mares.
It was a close run thing between the next three on the list, with Coolmore’s G1 Middle Park and July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns (33 elite mares), just a head of G1 Derby winner Masar (29) and G1 Futurity and 2,000 Guineas winner Magna Graecia (28). The reception for Derby winner Masar was particularly meritorious considering his £15k fee. In fact, his first book of mares was the best of any stallion in Britain at up to £40k or in Ireland at up to €25k. There were also plenty of quality mares for Arc hero Waldgeist, top sprinter Advertise and Kingman’s Coventry winner Calyx and the likes of the aforementioned Inns Of Court, Soldier’s Call, Land Force, Phoenix Of Spain and Invincible Army will all have plenty of representation with their first runners in 2022. No fewer than 13 first-season stallions attracted 100+ books.
Second Season Sires in 2020
The presence of a large quality group of first-season sires unfortunately has the effect of sucking the wind out of the sails of second and third year sires. The intake of 2019 featured 11 with 100+ books, but only eight held on to as many mares in their second year. The group’s leader was Coolmore’s Saxon Warrior who attracted 30 elite mares, down from 45 a year earlier. Tweenhills’ Zoustar managed 24 elite mares, 15 fewer that 12 months earlier. Cracksman, Expert Eye and Harry Angel all did well to maintain plenty of quality among their 100+ books, while US Navy Flag, Sioux Nation and Havana Grey also ensured strong continuity with big books.
Third Season Sires in 2020
Coolmore’s dual Guineas hero Churchill was the standout stallion among the third-year stallions with 43 elite mares. Remarkably, the son of Galileo increased his book in year three to 236 from the 206 in his first two seasons and he’s managed to put together three strong books in succession. If his first two-year-olds take off this year, then he’ll have another two strong crops to follow up with. No fewer than nine third-year sires covered 100+ books, with Profitable (154) second to Churchill. There’ll be plenty of attention too on the first runners in 2021 of Highland Reel, Time Test, Decorated Knight, Postponed and Ulysses, all of whom attracted 100+ book in their toughest year so far.
The Leading Sires in 2020
Whilst Dubawi and Galileo attracted the best quality books in 2020 – Dubawi’s sixth straight year to lead by this category, by dint of more mares covered, the Juddmonte pair of Kingman (116) and Frankel (110) covered the most elite mares of any British or Irish stallion in 2020. Dubawi and Sea The Stars were next best with 109 and 105, followed by Ballylinch’s Lope de Vega with 99 elite mares. Of all the stallions with 50 or more elite mares in 2020, one stands out because of his low fee. Night Of Thunder’s 90 elite mares, covered at a fee of just €25k, is three more that No Nay Never’s total of 87. In the circumstances, it is no wonder that Night Of Thunder’s fee has tripled for the 2021 covering season.
COVERING SIRES IN GB-IRE 2020 RANKED BY ELITE MARES
Name | YOB | Sire | Year | FARM | - |
FEE (€) | Mares | Elite | (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KINGMAN | 2011 | INVINCIBLE SPIRIT | 6 | Juddmonte | GB | 150,000 | 178 | 116 | 65.2 |
FRANKEL | 2008 | GALILEO | 8 | Juddmonte | GB | 175,000 | 172 | 110 | 64.0 |
DUBAWI | 2002 | DUBAI MILLENNIUM | 15 | Darley | GB | 250,000 | 151 | 109 | 72.2 |
SEA THE STARS | 2006 | CAPE CROSS | 11 | Gilltown | IRE | 150,000 | 205 | 105 | 51.2 |
LOPE DE VEGA | 2007 | SHAMARDAL | 10 | Ballylinch | IRE | 100,000 | 178 | 99 | 55.6 |
NIGHT OF THUNDER | 2011 | DUBAWI | 5 | Darley | IRE | 25,000 | 211 | 90 | 42.7 |
NO NAY NEVER | 2011 | SCAT DADDY | 6 | Coolmore | IRE | 175,000 | 188 | 87 | 46.3 |
GALILEO | 1998 | SADLER'S WELLS | 19 | Coolmore | IRE | Private | 115 | 85 | 73.9 |
TOO DARN HOT | 2016 | DUBAWI | 1 | Darley | GB | 50,000 | 170 | 76 | 44.7 |
BLUE POINT | 2014 | SHAMARDAL | 1 | Darley | IRE | 45,000 | 196 | 62 | 31.6 |
INVINCIBLE SPIRIT | 1997 | GREEN DESERT | 18 | Irish National | IRE | 100,000 | 139 | 54 | 38.8 |
DARK ANGEL | 2005 | ACCLAMATION | 13 | Yeomanstown | IRE | 85,000 | 161 | 49 | 30.4 |
CHURCHILL | 2014 | GALILEO | 3 | Coolmore | IRE | 30,000 | 236 | 43 | 18.2 |
GLENEAGLES | 2012 | GALILEO | 5 | Coolmore | IRE | 35,000 | 168 | 38 | 22.6 |
SHOWCASING | 2007 | OASIS DREAM | 10 | Whitsbury | GB | 55,000 | 161 | 37 | 23.0 |
CAMELOT | 2009 | MONTJEU | 7 | Coolmore | IRE | 40,000 | 130 | 34 | 26.2 |
KODIAC | 2001 | DANEHILL | 14 | Tally-Ho | IRE | 65,000 | 164 | 34 | 20.7 |
TEN SOVEREIGNS | 2016 | NO NAY NEVER | 1 | Coolmore | IRE | 25,000 | 193 | 33 | 17.1 |
GOLDEN HORN | 2012 | CAPE CROSS | 5 | Darley | GB | 40,000 | 110 | 30 | 27.3 |
SAXON WARRIOR | 2015 | DEEP IMPACT | 2 | Coolmore | IRE | 27,500 | 159 | 30 | 18.9 |
MASAR | 2015 | NEW APPROACH | 1 | Darley | GB | 15,000 | 135 | 29 | 21.5 |
MAGNA GRECIA | 2016 | INVINCIBLE SPIRIT | 1 | Coolmore | IRE | 22,500 | 169 | 28 | 16.6 |
BATED BREATH | 2007 | DANSILI | 8 | Juddmonte | GB | 12,500 | 138 | 26 | 18.8 |
ZOUSTAR | 2010 | NORTHERN METEOR | 2 | Tweenhills | GB | 30,000 | 122 | 24 | 19.7 |
OASIS DREAM | 2000 | GREEN DESERT | 17 | Juddmonte | GB | 25,000 | 105 | 24 | 22.9 |
ULYSSES | 2013 | GALILEO | 3 | Cheveley Park | GB | 15,000 | 118 | 23 | 19.5 |
NATHANIEL | 2008 | GALILEO | 8 | Newsells | GB | 25,000 | 101 | 21 | 20.8 |